伦敦房价创8年来最大跌幅London House Prices Post Biggest Annual Decline in Eight Years

London House Prices Post Biggest Annual Decline in Eight Years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-23/london-house-prices-post-biggest-annual-decline-in-eight-years

London house prices posted their largest annual drop in almost eight years in April as buyers shunned the capital’s central areas.

The average asking price in the city fell 1.5 percent to 636,777 pounds ($813,000) this month from a year earlier, the largest annual decline since May 2009, property website Rightmove Plc said on Monday. On the month, London asking prices decreased 2 percent.

London’s housing market has underperformed the rest of the country since the start of 2016 after demand was hit by unaffordable valuations, the Brexit vote and tax increases on investors. More expensive homes are suffering the most as London’s inner areas posted a 4.2 percent annual decline, while prices in its cheaper outer suburbs were up 1.7 percent.

“While the rest of the country enjoys a spring surge with most regions seeing a price boom and new price records, some parts of the London market are still re-adjusting,” said Rightmove Director Miles Shipside. “The more discretionary upper end of the market is having to tempt buyers with cheaper asking prices, offsetting the higher purchase taxes.”

For the U.K. as a whole, prices rose 1.1 percent on the month in April, Rightmove said. That was still was slower than the average monthly gain of 1.6 percent seen at this time of year over the past seven years. The national annual increase of 2.2 percent was the weakest since April 2013.

The loss of momentum may signal that buyers are becoming more cautious as accelerating inflation erodes real earnings and the start of the formal process of the U.K. to leave the European Union clouds the economic outlook.

A separate report from Deloitte LLP on Monday showed consumer confidence fell in the first quarter. The survey of 3,000 Britons was carried out between March 17 and March 20.

London house prices see biggest annual drop since 2009
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/london-house-prices-see-biggest-annual-drop-since-2009-1618284

老百姓表示热烈欢迎!!!

老天难道真要开眼了!
相信政府相信党,让暴风雨来得更猛烈些吧

嘿嘿,看法国大选结果吧。如果是女总统,估计英镑和房价会猛抬头……

Don’t bet your farm on it.

看bloomberg报道中按价格区间来看,跌的就是800k以上的,600k以下的除了08年金融危机以来就没变过趋势
不出意外,这个跌幅的原始数据中要是剔除600k以上的并不能体现老百姓刚需的伦敦房产数据的话,这个文案可以重新写了
2017-04-24_13-06-55.png

这炸药包自然要一层一层传,就盼望啥时候能传到我这层,还是那句话,要相信政府!

跌是肯定的了, 我这里北安2015年价格挂1.85M, 接着2016年挂1.65M, 然后再挂1.50M, 接着还是没脱, 2017年初挂1.25M 。

豪宅扛不住跌 刚需没办法

最近确实有降价,我最近几个月基本每天都比较,感觉市场好像有恐慌情绪,我关注的几个大学附近的出租区域,受脱欧影响,今年秋季欧洲学生申请人数直接去了7,8个点,跟着是老师工作要调整,所以挂牌的房子一个是量增多,而且每隔一段时间就直接自己降价5000,查看了房东的信息,很多都是握在手里20年以上的出租房,感觉有点套现的意思。个人认为如果硬脱欧,房价最少去10个点(我按照这个理由让房东降价10个点,确实被接受了), 现在我也有点拿不准。

话说乱世应该持币,但是现在这世道,房价跟汇价,不知道哪个跌得过哪个呀!

伦敦内的许多house,就在Tram 或train站旁边,交通还可以,自最近几个月上市以来,连连跌价。都不知道该怎样给Offer 了,怕继续跌
例如这个从375k跌到290k,还挂着http://m.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/42057611

不能说80万以下的房子就是钢需了,大把大把的中国投资客炒房团不都炒着80万以下的房子嘛。我觉得在这种欧洲大局没有稳定下来的时候,投资客们更愿意把手里的豪宅兑换成大批量小户型,这样可以规避风险,豪宅抛售加上小户型购入,那么这个房市出现那个图表的状态也就理所应当了。

这篇文章也是说了降价主要是高端房子,同时文章也说信心问题会往下扩散。

我觉得高端房子跌主要是前年stamp duty改革的原因,新的这个stamp duty计算方法970k以上的房子sdkt都增加了,特别是1 5m以上的增加特别多。

中低端房子涨价应该和高端跌价有一定的关系,目前伦敦的中介都没有合适价格范围的房子卖,自然价格就涨,伦敦现在很多开发的新房都是高端房子,高端疲软中端不往上移动这样中端房子可卖的就少,同样低端不往中端移动,低端房子也就少,所以可以说目前中低端房价还在holding主要是因为shortage of supply,现在很多中介没房子卖急的到处问人要不要卖房

持币,持什么币?

还没看到两三房的开始跌。

乡下会跌嘛?赶紧吧。。。要买刚需呢

希望这波跌浪快点向伦敦外围席卷~~~大浪打来吧!

个人所见,3大影响因素依次为:

  1. 取消mortgage relief
  2. stamp duty on 2nd property
  3. briexit

现在到2020年完成过渡后高杠杆出租房(贷款超过60%)投资基本是赔钱。同时存在房东BLT按揭到期后可续性的问题。所以房东们都在撑着不敢动。同时briexit不明朗导致外来经济移民回归,客观上减少了流动人口房屋需要量。
因素2让现在的房东彻底套住 - 3%的额外印花税对流动资金有影响,同时申请按揭又受更苛刻的可承受力测试。但是卖掉手上的房子套现,从而部分偿还以求降低其他房子的杠杆率呢?
未来再投资又要多付印花税。
因素1我以前分析过。简单来说,如果你现在是每个月1000镑按揭利息,未来额外个人所的税支出是4800镑/年。

退潮了就知道谁在裸泳了。现在的问题是,房东走了,first time buyer 还没有大规模进场。场面很冷清。

同意,但是第一点不是完全没relief,只是原来interest省40%起变成最多省20%吧