Exit Poll出来,不知道谁是首相了

Exit Poll @june 8 10pm GMT

Conservative: 314(-17)
Labour:266(+34)
LD:14(+6)
Ukip:0(-1)
SNP:34(-22)
Green:1(0)

Labour + SNP + LD = Conservative = 314
Wow, games on!

But in the exit poll for the 2015 GE, the exit poll for Tory is 316 and the final result is 330 with 14 up.
So the campaign is far from foregone again.

There are 76 seats that our predictions show as being too close to call.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40171454&link_location=live-reporting-story

最新英镑汇率1.27,已经有降势了

晚上都不用睡觉了,左偏一点点Jeremy Corbyn就上台了;右偏一点点,May也许还在台上。

如果真的是Corbyn上台,那就是中国女婿Jeremy把社会主义理念的Jemery送上去,这戏太深

back to Conservative + LD as 2010, haha

exit poll一出来,汇率马上从1.29到1.27,市场就认钱,比老子认儿子很厉害

这次的exit poll sample size is up from 20,000 to 33,000.

前三个Labour held,但显示Tory performs better than the exit poll suggests, but the fourth result is against this trend.

again, tory might still get a majority but that’s not the point. the point is, TM called the snap election for a landslide majority. it looks like she can’t even get a similar majority than Dave. especially given how unpopular JC was at the start of election.

Serious questions will be asked to weak on wobbly TMay.{:5_142:}

要汇英镑在英国买房睡不着,
要汇英镑回中国养家睡不着,

太折磨人了:cn03:

更有意思的是 教育大臣Justine Greening 和 home secretary Amber Rudd 要被干下去

看大戏:P

Students describe voting problems in Keele

Earlier we mentioned reports of problems for students trying to vote in Newcastle-under-Lyme. One, Daisy Davidson, a 21-year-old Neuroscience student at Keele University, says she is very angry she has not been able to vote.

“When we went to vote this afternoon we were told that we are not on the list, then other polling stations told us the same. We called the local council office, which told us we had submitted incomplete applications when we registered to vote. They said letters had been sent to us asking for more information, but none of us had received a letter. We spoke to the Electoral Commission who told us we had not provided National Insurance numbers or dates of birth - but I’m pretty sure that I did.”

第一个出来了Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Labour强势领先了一个马头with 9.9% up
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000831

Curtice: Labour swing smaller than expected in Newcastle Central

Prof John Custice says: "According to the exit poll there should be a 5 point decrease in the Conservative vote here, while Labour’s vote is expected to be up by 19 points. In practice, the Conservative vote is up by 6 points and the Labour vote by 10.

“The result is thus a smaller swing to Labour than expected by the exit poll.”

第2个也出来了,Labour hold
Houghton & Sunderland South: Labour hold
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000754
Labour 4% up and Tory 11% up

Prof John Curtice says: "According to the exit poll there should be a 4 point increase in the Conservative vote here, while Labour’s vote is expected to be up by 13 points. In practice, the Conservative vote is up by 11 points and the Labour vote by just 4.

“The result is thus a much better result for the Conservatives than expected by the exit poll.”

Tory vote better’ than poll in two declared seats - Kellner

Following the declaration that Labour has held on to Houghton & Sunderland South, elections expert Peter Kelner comments that the Conservatives have done “substantially better” in that constituency than the exit poll predicted, and Labour has done substantially worse - despite, of course, winning both seats.

that’s a safe seat anyway

“If we’re in a position where neither of the parties have a strong majority, there could be another election,” he says.

Source at Tory HQ says ‘knives are out’ for @theresa_may over ‘****’ campaign #GE17

Tory MPs saying if this poll is correct then will be “very difficult” for Theresa May to stay in place.

Things are very, very dicey for Theresa May if the exit poll is correct.

One senior Conservative party member has told me Mrs May is seen as having made mistakes during the campaign and “she will not be allowed to fight the next general election”.

If the Conservatives secure a majority of 30 or below, then she’s very damaged by that.

If she ends up with no overall majority she is very, very damaged, and even if that climbs up to 25 or 30 she’s very tarnished.

Remember, she didn’t have to call this election.

Swindon North has been held by Conservative MP Justin Tomlinson but it has fallen a little short of exit poll predictions.

The poll forecast a 7 point increase in the Conservative vote here, while Labour’s was expected to be up by 11 points.

In practice, the Conservative vote is up by 3 points and the Labour vote by 11.

Labour MP Sharon Hodgson has held on to Washington & Sunderland West but the Tories have made progress.

The Conservatives were looking at a 5 point increase but the vote is up by 10 points.

The Labour vote was expected to rise by 14 points according to the exit poll but is actually only 6 points higher.

从前几个公布的来看,Tory总体要比exit poll预测的好,乐观点,Tory勉强majority

it probably doesn’t matter. Exit poll was based on sampling from cir. 140 polling stations across the UK. they won’t tell you how they chose those stations.

I suspect some sort of Bayesian belief network is used. So in other words, safe seats will have bigger discrepancy because the results do not matter to the final results. The marginal seats, however, in theory should be more accurate.

however any models will have assumptions. there will be a large turn out from young voters which did not vote in previous election. they also have to assume voters give honest answers.

All in all, I believe exit poll is pretty accurate in terms of final results. and May will be under tremendous pressure. She might have to resign. we will see

Two very good sources told me May really didn’t want early election but was talked into it by aides. Though CCHQ strongly denied it.

对啊,it’s only sample of 140 polling stations, and it should have more than 1000 stations in total.

But it seems the conductor of the exit poll have every constituency detail at hand as he compares the actual result with exit poll

In Middlesbrough, a 5% swing to the Labour Party was expected by the exit poll, but in practice there is a 1 point swing to the Conservatives.

The exit poll has underestimated the Conservative performance in much of the North East of England. But what is far less clear is that it has done so across England as a whole.

Darlington a disappointment for the Tories
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000658

Darlington was a crucial seat for the Conservatives if they were to secure “a chunky majority”, BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg says, but Labour has held on.

The vote swing in Darlington is from Labour to the Conservatives was 0.2%.

‘Darlington was supposed to predict Tory landslide’

Prof John Curtice says Darlington was meant to be the seat that “told us Theresa May was heading for a landslide, and instead Labour has held it”.

More broadly, it looks as though Conservative vote has advanced most in places that voted Leave in the EU referendum, which tend to be places with a high UKIP vote, while Labour has advanced in areas where there was a low UKIP vote.

Darlington这种marginal拿不下来,340基本无望,能拿到majority已经属万幸

Boris Johnson is “already on manoeuvres” claims Tory MP, who says the foreign secretary is “sounding out” a few colleagues about leadership.