我觉得工党有烤饼在无论如何不可能胜出吧！而且工党三番五次不同意在10月31号前大选已经丧尽人心了。我预测如果大选工党惨败！
2017年大选前，考宾民望更低，结果大跌特蕾莎的眼睛。。
现在这个 boris 风评更加两极，所以千万不要低估工党实力
梅姨属于自不量力因为她没有个人魅力！Can’t lead!
大选如果要求二次公投的政党占了上风，欧盟不会让步，估计remain会赢. 二次公投估计就会逆转。
还2次公投干什么啊，很可能让英国社会进一步分裂。这个荒谬的结果直接取消就完了。
lib dem. 的manifesto主张revoke article50，直接cancel brexit，估计会吸引很多remain选民。
Brexit party另一极，主张leave with no deal。
新的脱欧协议北爱尔兰边界解决方法
https://www.ft.com/content/63a605e8-3180-39dd-aad0-bbfe635a3b59
Here is how the system would work.
– The assembly would have the opportunity to hold a simple majority vote on continuing the customs and regulatory arrangements four years after the end of the UK’s post-Brexit transition period. This would effectively prevent a DUP veto.
– If Northern Ireland were to vote to junk the system, a two-year cooling-off period would ensue.
– If the assembly decided to continue with the arrangements, a further opportunity to vote would arise four years later.
– There would then be two voting thresholds. A simple majority vote would keep the system in place for four years. However a weighted majority in favour, which means support from both nationalist and unionist communities, would keep it in place for eight years.
– If the Stormont assembly is not sitting, or if votes are not held, the arrangements would stay in place automatically.
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said the new deal rests on four main elements:
That Northern Ireland will remain aligned to a limited set of EU rules, notably related to goods
That Northern Ireland will remain in the UK’s customs territory, but will “remain an entry point” into the EU’s single market
That there is an agreement to maintain the integrity of the single market and satisfy the UK’s legitimate wishes over VAT
That Northern Ireland representatives will be able to decide whether to continue applying union rules in Northern Ireland or not every four years
估计这个deal在parliament通过不了
肯定通过不了
肯定通过不了，多少个眼睛就是不想脱，还看不出来么，may都4次了不还是歇菜么
虽然接下来两天Boris还可以再和DUP谈谈交易，但个人觉得Boris最终目标本来就是拿个改善的deal，主打脱离关税同盟和单一市场，可以和其他国家签独立贸易协议（先不管能签什么协议），有了deal接下来大选就比需要去sell no deal要更容易拉选票，苏格兰的票本来就是放弃的（工党也拿不到），即使是不得不去续签三个月也会甩锅在remoaner的议会头上，说帮我换了这批自以为是的政客从而真正达成brexit，这样从始至终people vs politician主题一致。大选是肯定会强调工党烤饼一伙儿背叛退欧派，要是投brexit party结果就是不但让烤饼上台，而且极大可能弄个remain推翻上次的民主决定。
现在头疼的是一直左右摇摆不定的工党，赌boris拿不到deal想将住boris让他食言去申请续签（然后大选会增加胜算），但是现在拿到deal即使不能按时退欧需要续签后大选时，他也能保证赢了大选就立刻退欧（因为已经有了deal），而工党自己党内意见不统一，赢了大选还要去再谈一个完全不能和第三方签贸易协议的更水的deal，然后再公投加上remain，而且还是不敢说主张选自己辛苦谈来的deal还是选白做工remain。老百姓已经完全厌倦了brexit这个词，所以拉票能力可想而知。
此外这次boris早就摸清对方的出招路数，你能画大饼我就先画个肉夹馍，提前掌控的大选的基调，烤饼开大会画了好多类似大学免费废除私校等大饼，但是民意上反应平平。
接下来周六投票，labour现在进退两难，要是想逼二次公投，就要先把这个deal通过，否则amendment通过deal不通过也没用。要是不支持deal，那就总要面对大选（大选的窘境已经说了）。
协议被拒后extension。接下来议会投票多数赞成进行大选或者通过no confidence vote进行大选。之前反对党无法就临时首相达成一致，没有进行no confidence vote。extension之后也不需要临时首相了。
北爱尔兰名义上是"a part of the UK’s customs territory", 实际上北爱尔兰和Great Britain之间还是要设置海关。
In a statement, the Democratic Unionists said Northern Ireland’s main East-West trade route would still be subject to EU customs rules, “notwithstanding that Northern Ireland will remain part of the UK customs territory”.
“All goods would be subject to a customs check regime regardless of their final destination,” the statement added, and the plan for a joint EU/UK committee would give the EU a “veto” on which goods would be exempt from tariffs or not.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50079385
What’s changed?
Northern Ireland will be aligned to the EU single market
The controversial “backstop” - that critics feared could have kept the UK in a customs union with the EU indefinitely - has been removed
Northern Ireland will instead remain a part of the UK’s customs territory, so it will be included in any future trade deals struck by the government after Brexit
But Northern Ireland will also remain an entry point into the EU’s customs zone. The UK will apply tariffs to products entering Northern Ireland as long as they are not destined for onward transportation across the border
A joint EU/UK committee will decide which goods are at risk of entering the single market and the UK will collect EU tariffs on them on behalf of the EU
The Northern Ireland Assembly - which has been suspended since January 2017 - will get a vote every four years on whether to continue with the new trading arrangements
The decision would be based on a simple majority, rather than requiring a majority of both unionists and nationalists to support the rules in order for them to pass
Juncker刚说这个deal够了，EU不会给续签了，要是有一个leader也同意的话，那么周六MP面临的就真是deal or no deal了
新DEAL 比梅的有什么改变吗
梅姨的deal极大可能是永久backstop，UK无法离开关税同盟，无法谈自己和第三方的贸易协议，现在是一国两制，UK整体离开单一市场和关税同盟，然后可以自己和第三方谈贸易协议，北爱虽然一起离开，但是因为和平协议和地理位置限制，所以regulation上和单一市场一致，关税上要和EU一致，然后如果UK谈到别的受惠协议，会给北爱补偿，比如VAT啥的（具体条款待议）。之前梅姨迫于工党的压力，答应EU在regulation各种right上面完全一致，新deal把这段淡化了，因为UK未来会想法找机会和EU竞争吸引投资（但EU肯定以后还会再要挟降低UK的竞争力要不不给免关税贸易协议）。
总之这个deal就是个不同的大框架，通过了才可以具体谈细节。
你的二次公投梦醒了吗？
Junker本月下台，配合英国首相，试图让mp通过脱欧协议。这个还是没戏。
这个协议拿回到英国议会很可能就两个选项deal or no deal，你说议会过不了，那就是无协议脱欧了呗