假设bj想10月大选来deliver no deal，Labour会怎么应对？我估计Labour可能不要求second referendum，直接就campaign revoke a50. 大家都走两极。也许另外一种可能反对党会形成electoral coalition来反对no deal？
我来支持此贴冲刺100页吧
在如今控制工党的左翼眼里，blairite lib dems都是一丘之貉 披着羊皮的tory:cn10:
986
Boris Johnson topped the vote again with 143 votes, 17 more than last time. Jeremy Hunt came second with 54, Michael Gove got 51 and Sajid Javid 38.
看来BJ要进最后一轮。Hunt和Gove谁能进？Sajid估计要出局了吧。
Boris Johnson – 157 – up 14 – 50%
Michael Gove – 61 – up 10 – 19%
Jeremy Hunt – 59 – up 5 – 19%
Sajid Javid – 34 – down 4 – 11%
Boris Johnson肯定进了。看sajid的支持者转投hunt还是gove。
金毛必胜了！
+1 我是来支持此帖冲100页的
Sajid 如果倒向hunt会怎样？
Johnson 和 Hunt进最后一轮 .看看中国女婿是不是能做首相:D
Brecon & Radnorshire 要举行by-election，对保守党又是一个考验，看看能不能守住。守不住的话,保守党在议会的多数又要减2.
上次大选结果
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000068
hunt能进最后一轮是johnson送的票，为的是把更有威胁的那位淘汰掉，剩个弱鸡陪自己走最后一轮，基本上johnson的首相是百分百了。hunt现在是被johnson选中陪太子读书的，保守党这个选举制度有很大制度漏洞，让johnson可以通过送票把更具竞争力的候选人剔除掉，只剩下对自己有利的弱鸡候选人和自己最后竞争。
:handshake
记得Hunt太太认识hunt之前是在华威大学的 international office工作吧
Hunt Johnson husting
看看johnson的brexit policy
Wants to leave on 31 October, the deadline for Brexit set by the EU, with or without a deal. He admits a no-deal exit will cause “some disruption” but says the “way to get a good deal is to prepare for no deal”.
Wants to remove the backstop from any deal and replace it with “alternative arrangements”.
Says he would withhold the £39bn “divorce” payment the UK is due to give the EU as part of the negotiated deal. He says the money will be retained until there is “greater clarity about the way forward”.
10月31脱欧很难做到。remove backstop 很难。£39 billion中大部分应该是已经承诺了的支出，withhold的话违背了承诺。
johnson的tax spending policy
Pledges to cut income tax for people earning more than £50,000 by raising the 40% tax threshold to £80,000.
Says it will benefit three million people and would cost £9.6bn a year.
Plans to pay for the cut partly from a pot set aside by the Treasury for a possible no-deal Brexit, and partly by increasing employee National Insurance payments.
这个政策收入5万镑以上的中产会有些受益。
这个只是promise，上台后很可能会变。另外由于保守党太弱，有可能议会通过不了。
至少可以说Johnson上台后给中产及以上加税的可能性不大。
bookmakers 都认为2nd EU referendum的概率非常低。个人觉得bookmakers大大低估了2nd EU referendum的概率。
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/2nd-eu-referendum
凑1000贴 
感觉保守党member选的不只是谁能把拖欧变成脱欧，更是在可能的snap election时，谁能对付烤饼，这一点看，最后三个人里，Boris和Michael感觉都比Hunt要强一些，Hunt最大特点就是没特点。。。