THEY are only low-level rumblings, oblique signals of discontent that are stripped of any direct political threat.
But as President Bush embarked on his second term last week, it was hard to escape the sense that his longtime honeymoon with the Federal Reserve may be ending.
The Fed and its chairman, Alan Greenspan, have arguably been Mr. Bush’s most important economic supporters. Mr. Greenspan gave his blessing to the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and, less enthusiastically, to those of 2003.
Despite Mr. Greenspan’s reputation as a staunch opponent of fiscal deficits, he tiptoed around criticism of the soaring federal debt that Mr. Bush ran up in his first term and will almost certainly continue to run up in his second.
Perhaps most important, the Greenspan Fed cut interest rates and showered the nation with cheap money to soften the recession of 2001 and to keep consumers spending through nearly three years of rising unemployment.
But something new is afoot, and it is not just that the Fed is raising rates back to more normal levels. So far, a measured pace of rate increases has merely reflected the Fed’s increased confidence that economic growth is on a steady course.
The new element is a rising concern at the Fed about the nation’s imbalances: the federal deficit, which hit $413 billion in 2004; a low and declining national savings rate; evidence of speculative behavior among investors and consumers; and the country’s enormous trade and financial deficit with the rest of the world.
In November, Mr. Greenspan noted that foreign claims on United States assets - essentially the nation’s net indebtedness to the rest of the world - were now equal to one-quarter of the nation’s gross domestic product. The trade deficit this year is almost certain to exceed $600 billion - nearly 6 percent of the nation’s economy, and still climbing.
“This situation suggests that international investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or, alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk,” Mr. Greenspan said. That, he continued, would make the cost of foreign debt “increasingly less tenable.”
To most economists, such comments are simply a statement of time-honored truth: a borrower who runs up huge debts will become a bigger risk to lenders and gradually have to pay higher rates. But Mr. Greenspan’s comments also carried a warning: rising budget and trade deficits come at the price of higher interest rates.
The Fed fired off another warning in the published minutes from its policy meeting on Dec. 14, saying, “a number of participants voiced concerns about domestic and global financial imbalances.” Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets policy, were said to believe that the odds of “significant deficit reduction over the next few years were remote.”
More surprising, the minutes said that some policy makers worried that the prolonged strategy of low rates might be fostering “excessive risk-taking” in financial markets and in the market for houses and condominiums. That sounded like a veiled reference to concern about a “housing bubble,” an idea that Mr. Greenspan has repeatedly shot down.
A third veiled warning came on Jan. 13 from Timothy F. Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In a speech to financial executives about risk management, Mr. Geithner suggested that investors had become too complacent about risks posed by global imbalances - particularly those in the United States.
Declaring that the current account deficit had reached an “unprecedented scale,” even as investors continue to demand very low risk premiums, Mr. Geithner warned that they had little buffer for unexpected shocks.
“The present fiscal trajectory entails an uncomfortable scale of borrowing and little insurance against possible adverse outcomes in an uncertain world,” he said.
In private sessions, Mr. Greenspan may well be warning Mr. Bush in blunter terms. The Fed chairman meets regularly with Vice President Dick Cheney and periodically with Mr. Bush.
There is a rumor in Washington - thus far unconfirmed - that Mr. Greenspan warned the White House in mid-December that it would have to take more credible steps than it has so far to meet its goal of cutting the deficit in half by 2009.
If true, the unspoken but inescapable threat would be clear: if the Fed wasn’t satisfied, Mr. Greenspan could signal his lack of confidence in Mr. Bush’s fiscal plan. Investors would be shaken and Mr. Bush’s credibility would be damaged.
What is certain is that the White House has started to signal tough cuts - trimming as much as $30 billion over six years at the Pentagon - and Mr. Bush has adjusted his rhetoric about the deficit.
Where administration officials routinely called the deficits “unwelcome but manageable,” Mr. Bush and other top officials now describe deficit reduction as the cornerstone of their strategy for shoring up the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
Complicating the chemistry between the White House and the Fed this year is Mr. Greenspan’s anticipated retirement in January 2006.
White House officials are trying to expand their list of potential successors. One early favorite - John B. Taylor, under secretary of the Treasury - is no longer in contention, according to people close to the White House.
White House officials are also cool about Martin Feldstein, the esteemed Harvard professor and director of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Mr. Feldstein has been a passionate supporter of tax cuts and partly privatizing Social Security - Mr. Bush’s top economic priorities. But some officials are still angry that Mr. Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Ronald Reagan, criticized deficits run up by his boss.
MR. FELDSTEIN is not out of the running, but White House officials are looking at others. One would be R. Glenn Hubbard, an architect of Mr. Bush’s tax cuts and now dean of the Columbia Business School.
A third possibility is Ben Bernanke, a Fed governor and a respected economist. While at the Fed, Mr. Bernanke, not a Bush insider, has impressed White House officials and is likely to be named chairman of Mr. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers. Though Mr. Bernanke would be a long shot to become Fed chairman, a successful tour at the White House could help his chances.
No matter who succeeds Mr. Greenspan, Mr. Bush will have to tread warily at the Fed. It is noteworthy that Republican Fed officials have tended to be more hawkish of late about raising rates sooner rather than later. The most dovish voice has been that of a Democrat - Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. If tea leaves from the Fed indicate anything, it is that Mr. Bush could get tough treatment from officials tied to his own party.
THEY are only low-level rumblings, oblique signals of discontent that are stripped of any direct political threat.
他HH是一些模糊的信，用以表_墩物LU的不?M和摹
But as President Bush embarked on his second term last week, it was hard to escape the sense that his longtime honeymoon with the Federal Reserve may be ending.
自?牟际查_始他的第二y任期，就A示著他和美Φ拈L期“蜜月”Y束了。
The Fed and its chairman, Alan Greenspan, have arguably been Mr. Bush’s most important economic supporters. Mr. Greenspan gave his blessing to the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and, less enthusiastically, to those of 2003.
美σ约爸飨?. 格林斯潘，很有h性的成布什最重要的?е８窳炙古酥С至瞬际2001年的?率下{，但是同釉2003年，t]有那麽嵝牧恕
Despite Mr. Greenspan’s reputation as a staunch opponent of fiscal deficits, he tiptoed around criticism of the soaring federal debt that Mr. Bush ran up in his first term and will almost certainly continue to run up in his second.
?管格林斯潘的u?碜运c政赤字的?梗⌒囊硪淼睦@^那些Σ际苍诘谝y任期期g造成美Φ母哳~赤字。而且在第二任期内，很有可能^m。
Perhaps most important, the Greenspan Fed cut interest rates and showered the nation with cheap money to soften the recession of 2001 and to keep consumers spending through nearly three years of rising unemployment.
也S最重要的，格林斯潘IУ拿缆Bm降低利率，使整美萑胭H值，以?F2001年?ネ说能著，同r需要面3年以?沓掷m增L的失I率。
But something new is afoot, and it is not just that the Fed is raising rates back to more normal levels. So far, a measured pace of rate increases has merely reflected the Fed’s increased confidence that economic growth is on a steady course.
然而也有新的l展在d中，不HH是美⒁牙哒{。目前，可以Ay的利率回?qHH反映了美督?掷m增L路Q的信心。
The new element is a rising concern at the Fed about the nation’s imbalances: the federal deficit, which hit $413 billion in 2004; a low and declining national savings rate; evidence of speculative behavior among investors and consumers; and the country’s enormous trade and financial deficit with the rest of the world.
美δ诓浚P於沂ヘ政平衡的因素正在被P注。邦赤字在2004年_到了413billion美元。低得可z，?K且在持m下降的π罾∽C了投Y者日益增L的投C心理和表F，以及也豢捎档馁Q易，政赤字。
In November, Mr. Greenspan noted that foreign claims on United States assets - essentially the nation’s net indebtedness to the rest of the world - were now equal to one-quarter of the nation’s gross domestic product. The trade deficit this year is almost certain to exceed $600 billion - nearly 6 percent of the nation’s economy, and still climbing.
11月，格林斯潘lFH上睹盏纳暝V，的恳呀_到美裆b值的四分之一。今年的Q易差已肯定^600billion美元，美窠?6%，?K且在增L。
“This situation suggests that international investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or, alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk,” Mr. Greenspan said. That, he continued, would make the cost of foreign debt “increasingly less tenable.”
“@N情r暗示了H投Y者，⒆罱K{整他的美元Yan，或者ふ腋叩拿涝舐视靡?ap失”，格林斯潘f。他^mf，“@⑹H盏幕ㄙM持m性降低。”
To most economists, such comments are simply a statement of time-honored truth: a borrower who runs up huge debts will become a bigger risk to lenders and gradually have to pay higher rates. But Mr. Greenspan’s comments also carried a warning: rising budget and trade deficits come at the price of higher interest rates.
大部分?W家J，@雍蔚脑u是^v史C，由?硪丫玫氖?。具有高~外姆刨J人借J人的巨大LU，他⒙谋黄戎Ц陡哳~利息。但是格林斯潘的u也是一N警告，持m增L的政A算以及Q易差е赂呃省
The Fed fired off another warning in the published minutes from its policy meeting on Dec. 14, saying, “a number of participants voiced concerns about domestic and global financial imbalances.” Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets policy, were said to believe that the odds of “significant deficit reduction over the next few years were remote.”
美υ诠?训12月14日政策h的渫中宣Q另外一警告，“一些⑴c者更加P心的是本约H之g的不平衡”。美Φ牟糠殖T成立了制定策略的市鑫T相信?K提出“?年的政赤字⒂忻黠@的降低”的可能性。
More surprising, the minutes said that some policy makers worried that the prolonged strategy of low rates might be fostering “excessive risk-taking” in financial markets and in the market for houses and condominiums. That sounded like a veiled reference to concern about a “housing bubble,” an idea that Mr. Greenspan has repeatedly shot down.
更令人@的是，h渫指出，一些政策的制定者n，持m低利率的拖延政策，o形中鼓罱鹑谑觯康禺a市觥斑^多LU承壁荨＿@起?硐袷斗康禺a市雠菽碾[藏表_和提及，而@一c是格林斯潘不嘀?驮诘种频摹
A third veiled warning came on Jan. 13 from Timothy F. Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In a speech to financial executives about risk management, Mr. Geithner suggested that investors had become too complacent about risks posed by global imbalances - particularly those in the United States.
第三[藏的警告?碜杂1月13日，美~s溷y行行LTimothy F. Geithner。在一鹑诰揞^P於LU管理的演v中，他指出投Y者度虿黄胶庠斐傻娘LU得沾沾自喜和忽，尤其是在美耐顿Y者。
Declaring that the current account deficit had reached an “unprecedented scale,” even as investors continue to demand very low risk premiums, Mr. Geithner warned that they had little buffer for unexpected shocks.
Timothy F. Geithner宣Q目前政赤字已到_空前的浚词雇顿Y者^mΦ惋LU投Y保持需求。Timothy F. Geithner警告f，美χ挥蟹浅Ｓ邢薜囊馔饩?n能力。
“The present fiscal trajectory entails an uncomfortable scale of borrowing and little insurance against possible adverse outcomes in an uncertain world,” he said.
他f，“目前的政道，在不_定的市鲅Y面，使得失衡的J款比例，不足虻谋ｋUw制，c可能出F的面Y果a生矛盾。”
In private sessions, Mr. Greenspan may well be warning Mr. Bush in blunter terms. The Fed chairman meets regularly with Vice President Dick Cheney and periodically with Mr. Bush.
私底下，格林斯潘也S已非常?硬的提醒^布什。美χ飨c副yDick Cheney有傻，c布什t是L期性。
There is a rumor in Washington - thus far unconfirmed - that Mr. Greenspan warned the White House in mid-December that it would have to take more credible steps than it has so far to meet its goal of cutting the deficit in half by 2009.
在A盛D有一{言，仍未被完全C?，格林斯潘曾在12月中旬警告白m，政府⑿枰饶壳巴瞥龈嗫尚诺拇胧赃_到2009年sp一半政赤字的目耍
If true, the unspoken but inescapable threat would be clear: if the Fed wasn’t satisfied, Mr. Greenspan could signal his lack of confidence in Mr. Bush’s fiscal plan. Investors would be shaken and Mr. Bush’s credibility would be damaged.
如果@是真的，未被f出但是不可避免的?在危U⒑苊骼省Ｈ绻缆]有得到?M足，格林斯潘⒃诓际驳呢政蟾嬷邪凳舅狈ψ虻男判摹Ｍ顿Y者⒏械秸痼@，?亩际驳目尚哦纫艿p
What is certain is that the White House has started to signal tough cuts - trimming as much as $30 billion over six years at the Pentagon - and Mr. Bush has adjusted his rhetoric about the deficit.
可以肯定的是，白m已_始l出?硬信，啦课褰谴6年以?30billion美元的M裁p。同r布什也已不再敦政A算如此花言巧Z。
Where administration officials routinely called the deficits “unwelcome but manageable,” Mr. Bush and other top officials now describe deficit reduction as the cornerstone of their strategy for shoring up the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
管理A⒇政赤字冠冕堂皇的Q“不受g迎但是在掌握之中”，布什以及其他高庸芾砣T⒇政赤字的sp描述椋疤岣呙涝HR率政策的的基A”。
Complicating the chemistry between the White House and the Fed this year is Mr. Greenspan’s anticipated retirement in January 2006.
格林斯潘2006年1月外界Ay的退休，姑缆桶m的今年的PS更加巧妙。
White House officials are trying to expand their list of potential successors. One early favorite - John B. Taylor, under secretary of the Treasury - is no longer in contention, according to people close to the White House.
白m已在涿缆χ飨睦^任人名巍８m内部人士的消息，^早前的衢T人x，政部秘John B. Taylor已不再是的狳c。
White House officials are also cool about Martin Feldstein, the esteemed Harvard professor and director of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Mr. Feldstein has been a passionate supporter of tax cuts and partly privatizing Social Security - Mr. Bush’s top economic priorities. But some officials are still angry that Mr. Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Ronald Reagan, criticized deficits run up by his boss.
白m同Φ赂咄氐墓鸫W教授，医?芯I裁Martin Feldstein保持冷酷。Martin Feldstein是?率下{，社踩到y私有化的忠?支持者，而@是布什最先需要解Q的}之一。然而他仍然因政赤字的增L而遭到g接批u。
MR. FELDSTEIN is not out of the running, but White House officials are looking at others. One would be R. Glenn Hubbard, an architect of Mr. Bush’s tax cuts and now dean of the Columbia Business School.
Martin Feldstein?K]有退出角逐，但是白m正在ふ移渌^任人。其中一人x⑹歉?比?商I大W校L，布什?率下{智囊F之一的R. Glenn Hubbard。
A third possibility is Ben Bernanke, a Fed governor and a respected economist. While at the Fed, Mr. Bernanke, not a Bush insider, has impressed White House officials and is likely to be named chairman of Mr. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers. Though Mr. Bernanke would be a long shot to become Fed chairman, a successful tour at the White House could help his chances.
另一可能性是美T，?WBen Bernanke。在美Γ?K不是作布什幕僚的Ben Bernanke，o白m留下了深刻的印象。很有可能他⒈幻椴际仓悄F的?。m然Ben Bernanke被命名槊缆χ飨有很L的一段路，但是白m的一帆Lλ笥助。
No matter who succeeds Mr. Greenspan, Mr. Bush will have to tread warily at the Fed. It is noteworthy that Republican Fed officials have tended to be more hawkish of late about raising rates sooner rather than later. The most dovish voice has been that of a Democrat - Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. If tea leaves from the Fed indicate anything, it is that Mr. Bush could get tough treatment from officials tied to his own party.
ol㈩I缆Γ际捕急仨小心翼翼。值得P注的是美邦共和h人的官T，陡缣岣呃首得?硬。最?硬的音?碜悦裰鼽h人，美εf金山溷y行行LJanet Yellen。
[ 编辑者 stanfordwu 于日期 17Mar05 ]
他媽的，累死我了
于 2005-03-17 04:04, stanfordwu 写:
他的，累死我了
?,辛苦你了
我也看了看，第一句就让我郁闷了老半天，不知道是直译好，还是意译。现在好了，多亏stanfordwu了~
向你学习~~
于 2005-03-17 13:22, SANRIOO 写:
我也看了看，第一句就让我郁闷了老半天，不知道是直译好，还是意译。现在好了，多亏stanfordwu了~
向你学习~~
你?我老公了
真是辛苦了……
老板好强阿英文这么好啊不知道老板娘和老板税的英文更好一点呢？
貓兒英國口音，我美國口音。我特別喜歡聼她說的英國式“Thank you”
于 2005-03-18 08:13, happysea 写:
老板好强阿英文这么好啊不知道老板娘和老板税的英文更好一点呢？![]()
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你们都在英国吧？
于 2005-03-18 08:34, stanfordwu 写:
貓兒英國口音，我美國口音。我特別喜歡聼她說的英國式“Thank you”
于 2005-03-18 08:13, happysea 写:
老板好强阿英文这么好啊不知道老板娘和老板税的英文更好一点呢？![]()
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他英文比我好,而且他説話正經,我調皮~~~~
晕! 好长啊!
我老公那麽辛苦，侵髯约憾疾?砹耍